Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ea56704cd19d19ec0fd16eee3225e987a9c8afbab32b523cb1ecd5cc9d6cb99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 75c | 2,395$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.79 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 19c | 972.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.45 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 27c | 357.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 178.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed Yes | 74c | 137.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…e814backed No | 29c | 92.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed No | 29c | 74.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 27c | 66.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed No | 25c | 57.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…0830backed No | 26c | 54.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…e437backed Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb800…c5bfbacked Yes | 76c | 27.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…a658backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.