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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes56c22,089$12,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,647.893946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed No4c12,785$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.446613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes28c10,348$2,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,491.3287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No59c10,309$6,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,053.653447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes12c9,119$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,052.411466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No53c5,042$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.893452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No76c2,917$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed No65c2,842$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.791020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid+37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes9c2,775$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,514.258017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed No71c2,692$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Yes22c2,460$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.873522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes23c2,297$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.19407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf34…dc6ebacked No13c1,900$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No56c1,500$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.52458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19fc…b4e3backed No70c1,356$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.241811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No58c1,312$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.7313770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a60…cc65backed Yes24c1,011$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd3…0413backed Yes22c821.08$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.751717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-52.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb37b…5186backed No55c815.11$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.834032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes11c800$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.22126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No37c776.13$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4931523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72fc…ddfdbacked Yes62c738.36$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.561070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes26c676.78$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.975226.9%14 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes43c566.03$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.2311330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No19c499.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc18e…b090backed No63c400$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503871.1%27 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x807d…76dcbacked No73c384.44$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.594334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes24c375.8$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.798634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb0…26ecbacked Yes25c350$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.52222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x026a…f9a0backed No69c345.76$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.54771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba1a…87a4backed Yes40c335.33$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.04714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x628c…c651backed Yes25c291.44$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.94623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes18c287.95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.714533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6119…346ebacked Yes38c286.43$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.01944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcabb…bbc4backed Yes24c277.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+315.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…22f3backed Yes45c267.07$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Yes62c252.61$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa272…797abacked Yes38c237.31$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf61…4d44backed Yes39c231.66$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes13c231.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7740643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52d…3728backed Yes21c224.96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.582254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes19c224.37$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.743212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes20c221.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.962360.9%14 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick38cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd286…0dd1backed No79c203.77$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No65c182.87$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.682650%13 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes28c177.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.155614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c11…de68backed Yes35c175.37$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No77c168.1$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1421651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…77c8backed Yes19c166.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.252045%9 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+53.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes13c165.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.661118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c20…cb2cbacked No78c165.54$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.29560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd7c…46d9backed Yes12c151.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.37185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No77c150$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.718162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes24c149.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.583627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed No64c148.21$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.816518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…73a1backed No80c148.06$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27a7…cd66backed No66c144.29$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.09366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd43…0699backed Yes20c140.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.492853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked No60c133.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.949964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes26c132.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.328919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6150…70c1backed No80c123.5$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…adcdbacked No80c123.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c6…dea6backed Yes43c122.07$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.91955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fae…d519backed Yes22c115.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+123%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes33c101.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.029940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb43…91e5backed No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.55757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes13c99.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.693514.3%5 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+112.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbe2…4025backed Yes21c97.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+380.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb261…e94abacked No80c97.33$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d07…1d75backed Yes18c96.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.52520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2464…44a1backed No72c95.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.571968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x634a…07b2backed Yes28c95.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.812045%9 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3f4…f27ebacked Yes49c95.27$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No79c94.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.631560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…501dbacked Yes55c87.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.191580%12 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked No80c85$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.582653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4c…33b5backed No78c83.82$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.514341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a08…2dc4backed No60c80.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6c…e10dbacked No80c80$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.62450%12 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4043…19cfbacked No80c80$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.63053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa324…c18abacked No80c80$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0831…dce1backed Yes31c70.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.79520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02bb…cb45backed No80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf582…55b2backed Yes47c69.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-42.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…87a0backed Yes80c67.98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb69…eaa4backed Yes23c66.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+343%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No62c65.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.055444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed No74c65.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff1d…fc27backed Yes21c64.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+103.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa319…9e56backed Yes22c64.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb9…97f7backed No69c62.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x698a…e142backed Yes25c61.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.171216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fe7…98e3backed Yes45c60.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+131.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd918…aa30backed Yes23c56.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+331.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3d…bd04backed No72c55.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.753762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b95…61eabacked Yes34c53.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No69c51.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.421050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ac…8daebacked No71c49.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.181258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ea…0d11backed Yes21c48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.97633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.