Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd8403f6461dc758163193222f4c8c4877464be4d1159a1da5cfcdc21f73c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $322,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $311,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc131…f290backed Yes | 0c | 47,612$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,173$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 7c | 8,571$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.62 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes | 7c | 6,008$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.36 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 12c | 3,898$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.78 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,472$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,956$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 19c | 2,923$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.93 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…0876backed Yes | 1c | 2,136$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes | 18c | 1,937$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.23 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 80c | 1,930$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.7 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…5e5ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,806$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,742$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb0…26ecbacked Yes | 23c | 1,670$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.47 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 1,664$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 1c | 1,278$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,216$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 4c | 1,169$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 3c | 1,101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 47c | 1,089$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…10c1backed Yes | 5c | 1,036$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes | 50c | 978.08$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 974.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 972.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…ce9bbacked Yes | 2c | 879.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 18c | 825$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 26c | 588.02$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…9cb3backed Yes | 52c | 567.81$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…977abacked Yes | 3c | 556.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed No | 68c | 535.32$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.57 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b1…b35bbacked Yes | 5c | 533.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 29c | 519.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 6c | 464.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed Yes | 22c | 444.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81af…5884backed Yes | 13c | 409.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 4c | 360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…f557backed Yes | 7c | 311.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…e10fbacked Yes | 29c | 307.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 49c | 283.64$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 8c | 261.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…0539backed Yes | 12c | 218.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 23c | 197.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 9c | 182.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 12c | 174.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…e142backed Yes | 13c | 156.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…e120backed Yes | 16c | 154.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 11c | 139.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…0d11backed Yes | 11c | 135.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…a615backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…980fbacked Yes | 11c | 97.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 69c | 87.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…e814backed Yes | 31c | 87.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…e437backed Yes | 22c | 80.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 24c | 77.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 71c | 60.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…0416backed Yes | 19c | 58.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked No | 55c | 50.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d154backed No | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…a6e6backed No | 65c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 54c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 73c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.