Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf51551b39d50396009471492879718c582a9b1e7c8448793544f480991c1c019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 21c | 8,859$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,029.41 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…e845backed No | 79c | 5,252$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,170.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 38c | 4,510$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.41 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…fe61backed No | 68c | 2,994$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…8916backed No | 34c | 2,137$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 23c | 1,934$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.95 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes | 69c | 1,692$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…fd16backed Yes | 45c | 1,183$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…87a4backed No | 19c | 1,162$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 55c | 1,020$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83e…ee22backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 23c | 699.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 69c | 620.98$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.48 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 43c | 515.45$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.01 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 26c | 374.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 31c | 360.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 60c | 357.02$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…5731backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 31c | 290.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 18c | 244.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.52 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 7c | 217.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…b090backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…705bbacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 186.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed No | 49c | 163.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked No | 26c | 150.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked No | 69c | 143.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6737…ffe2backed No | 32c | 141.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked No | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…346ebacked Yes | 69c | 138.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 74c | 126.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed No | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…03f3backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 65c | 96.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 77c | 93.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes | 43c | 92.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 35c | 90.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked Yes | 68c | 76.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…77c8backed No | 21c | 75.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 31c | 72.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…5305backed No | 29c | 70.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 19c | 69.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x338c…5cc5backed Yes | 72c | 66.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…9812backed No | 27c | 64.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ed…fbddbacked Yes | 68c | 57.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…f566backed Yes | 47c | 55.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…3ffcbacked Yes | 68c | 51.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed No | 67c | 42.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…ddfdbacked Yes | 69c | 41.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…911bbacked Yes | 68c | 41.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 47c | 39.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked No | 51c | 37.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…501dbacked Yes | 70c | 36.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…0cd2backed Yes | 67c | 33.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…c68fbacked Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 79c | 21.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…b491backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…55b2backed Yes | 75c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Yes | 72c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.