TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$466,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$504,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,165 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes7c32,389$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.673946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes9c24,641$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.461466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes11c12,837$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.9287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c12,439$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c11,712$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a60…cc65backed Yes9c9,901$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No66c9,016$5,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,078.163452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes4c6,319$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.21620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9907…b562backed Yes1c5,202$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.36244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-92.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Yes8c4,976$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.053522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe468…769dbacked Yes3c4,951$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb0…26ecbacked Yes10c3,954$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.832222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba1a…87a4backed Yes17c2,598$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.28714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes6c2,321$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.151031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10d…a77cbacked Yes8c2,029$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe616…a30abacked Yes7c1,858$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd3…0413backed Yes6c1,634$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.131717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-52.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf921…be16backed Yes13c1,572$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.18429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,472$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.146785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No71c1,400$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.44650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes7c1,317$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.862581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes5c1,293$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.941672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes5c1,259$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.361792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes12c1,179$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.693212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991f…d3c2backed Yes21c1,144$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.193324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-61.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0513…6ee8backed Yes17c1,031$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.281338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d46…528ebacked Yes4c957.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes2c895.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9121651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes2c859.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8328021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes5c846.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes5c836.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.074533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9167…5338backed Yes8c801.55$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.71120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No79c780.51$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.558919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes4c727.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.835614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6119…346ebacked Yes15c697.56$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.36944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b4…2d43backed Yes6c673.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.53714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes8c543.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0831…dce1backed Yes9c516.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.94520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e3…8ebfbacked Yes4c499.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4dd…09b5backed Yes8c425.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes10c424$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7523411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes12c404.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f40…99a5backed Yes8c403.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes7c394.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.983627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fae…d519backed Yes13c369.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+123%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes3c369.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.023514.3%5 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+112.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1173…cebfbacked Yes10c355.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…915bbacked Yes8c332.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe1…5d8bbacked Yes5c325.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.271315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c45…398bbacked Yes15c320.35$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c6…0211backed Yes34c307.71$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ab…7457backed No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…a9f6backed Yes9c299.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2784…e60abacked Yes31c290.53$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.06683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes5c285.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6797…cc65backed Yes18c269.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes8c260.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61210%0 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4954…ac42backed Yes12c231.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf756…3a81backed Yes8c225.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.34230%0 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No77c207.97$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9640643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x154b…d5b1backed Yes9c202.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc18e…b090backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403871.1%27 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf582…55b2backed Yes22c199.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-42.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd286…0dd1backed No61c193.63$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x698a…e142backed Yes7c185.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes15c174.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.419940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51c2…02b1backed Yes18c166.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87b…1a52backed Yes19c154.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec0…d4bebacked Yes18c139.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes38c120.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x018d…f921backed No79c119.87$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa05d…0539backed Yes18c119.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x960b…9e7cbacked Yes11c95.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a17…33ebbacked Yes18c73.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b04…5f91backed Yes22c71.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…22f3backed Yes36c50.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf038…2610backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaecd…27abbacked No79c48.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.182171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f61…d9d5backed No68c41.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked No80c30.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.113964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1fc…5da8backed No72c20.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…1d56backed No79c13.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.