Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7932ba47d328116e97bb3c037c2229aa61a00508a3b3be64fd3334050d085ff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 43c | 6,883$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.33 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked No | 56c | 3,887$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,188.66 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 49c | 1,892$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.47 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 51c | 1,333$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.71 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 15c | 1,125$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.09 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 59c | 838.96$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked No | 35c | 389.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed No | 47c | 316.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 37c | 284.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 30c | 265.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 58c | 188.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…aebfbacked No | 48c | 173.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa280…fbbabacked No | 57c | 164.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed No | 57c | 110.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 61c | 77.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed No | 44c | 65.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d1…461cbacked No | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 53cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked No | 56c | 49.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…8daebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…98e3backed Yes | 51c | 39.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f07…77bbbacked No | 61c | 30.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…ddfdbacked No | 57c | 28.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 67c | 28.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…a6e6backed No | 57c | 24.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 59c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 58c | 21.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 56c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c85…4eccbacked No | 56c | 19.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d154backed Yes | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.