TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc2b1…b35b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NHL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-67.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.15
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.25
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.02
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.78
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40%+$19.98
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.99
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$120.77
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.81
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$5.86
Pelicans vs. Celticsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.7
76ers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.69
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$8.69
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.92
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.72
Spread: Warriors (-13.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$25.14
Jazz vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$5.22
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$6.5
Spread: Heat (-1.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.65
All 11 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.33
Predators vs. Ducksbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$48.95
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$26.39
Panthers vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$22.74
Lightning vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.61
All 5 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+125.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.