TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$251,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c27,655$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.64892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes5c11,367$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5507027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c8,230$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.231344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd502…c111backed Yes4c8,223$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…f14ebacked Yes4c8,034$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed Yes3c7,623$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.013234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfd…17e1backed Yes4c7,057$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes6c4,400$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.173826.3%10 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d8…3c22backed Yes5c4,200$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e9…3cb1backed Yes15c4,045$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes7c3,437$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.97828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes5c3,361$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5154…245dbacked Yes9c3,340$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes7c3,282$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7313334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e7…af86backed Yes7c3,268$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes5c3,231$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.55117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8c4…26bfbacked Yes6c3,230$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4870%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6539…c379backed Yes7c3,012$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes4c2,888$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.414240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes4c2,797$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.373920.5%8 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,457$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.891,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes3c2,100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.04130%0 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd909…f7ecbacked Yes7c2,071$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.83130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84c1…ac22backed Yes5c2,038$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fd…fe19backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502025%5 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes4c2,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7625337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x841c…2481backed Yes7c1,897$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b3…4625backed Yes5c1,875$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c1,807$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.831357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d0…6d0bbacked Yes8c1,755$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d7…a0bcbacked Yes4c1,618$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf460…675cbacked Yes7c1,602$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,594$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.242344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes3c1,531$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.14511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39b…3318backed Yes6c1,476$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.470%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3da…282cbacked Yes7c1,421$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d62…27e0backed Yes3c1,337$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.682040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac6…2c6fbacked Yes7c1,328$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes3c1,300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Yes4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.993534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5447…9defbacked Yes8c1,155$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9160…6152backed Yes12c1,143$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,074$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.232543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3d…e96abacked Yes3c934.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e93…f5bebacked Yes5c918.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes4c876.69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.628821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Yes5c857.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393030%9 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c818.97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8422029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bb…594dbacked Yes8c781$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed Yes2c761$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a2…1c9bbacked Yes8c736.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81d9…76e6backed Yes7c734.4$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5160%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a4…02febacked Yes5c718.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc76…6a4fbacked Yes7c691.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a71…8792backed Yes7c687$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c662.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.711,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Yes4c633.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.332128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda7f…2425backed Yes10c626.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e3…824dbacked Yes10c615.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c598.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes7c507.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.588716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10eb…848bbacked Yes5c501.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2b1…b35bbacked Yes5c480.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-67.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes10c479.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.776883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes3c457.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4310261.8%63 W · 39 L+13.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x35d0…2ddabacked Yes4c425.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd85b…d467backed Yes4c421.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44da…6960backed Yes6c409.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c402.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.65614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c383.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2224110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x820c…7e43backed Yes7c378.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e2…8862backed Yes4c365$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a17…bf47backed Yes5c362.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa94d…f048backed Yes7c362.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85a…eb12backed Yes4c354.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd19e…754ebacked Yes4c321.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes4c311.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes4c310$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.052630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f7…0e8cbacked Yes5c302.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-71.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c293.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.98446.8%3 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a1…bf30backed Yes5c290.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes7c286.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.923737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a38…2224backed Yes11c278.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6fc1backed Yes7c268.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes7c244.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0715022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6165…c5c1backed Yes4c243$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf789…a812backed Yes6c236.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x401a…9e00backed Yes5c219.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes6c218.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes5c213.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.084211.9%5 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2db2…4ca2backed Yes9c180$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-74.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9b…9248backed Yes10c179.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1890%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d6…1491backed Yes12c145.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014b…6f2cbacked Yes10c125.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.38214.8%1 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.31per pick36cpaid-91.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+26.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes22c68.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8756314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.