TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$793,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$724,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $793,502 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c30,150$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.45892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a2…1c9bbacked Yes5c26,202$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.2380%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcaa…5c0dbacked Yes3c25,183$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.0650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c13,449$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.261344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3473…8916backed Yes7c12,623$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…f14ebacked Yes4c12,284$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06be…8615backed Yes4c7,650$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.7570%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8c4…26bfbacked Yes3c7,521$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85e9…3cb1backed Yes10c7,250$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes3c6,196$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.228821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes4c5,587$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.325117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd57e…ecf2backed Yes2c4,959$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…0047backed Yes2c4,513$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd502…c111backed Yes3c4,045$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes3c4,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123826.3%10 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6251…95d7backed Yes8c3,917$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc59…154dbacked Yes4c3,505$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081b…e6fcbacked Yes8c3,343$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39b…3318backed Yes4c3,257$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8170%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes4c3,038$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.623920.5%8 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8162…387dbacked Yes8c3,018$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc1…9452backed Yes10c2,977$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d0…2ddabacked Yes3c2,968$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.08911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec4…9202backed Yes8c2,903$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…7bc6backed Yes8c2,867$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8895…29a5backed Yes10c2,825$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,811$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.681,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44fa…76d5backed Yes9c2,810$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c2,800$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.341358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a1…3379backed Yes8c2,693$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…ac28backed Yes8c2,658$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f87…0901backed Yes8c2,588$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…c6cfbacked Yes7c2,587$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b6…2c67backed Yes7c2,582$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a33…105fbacked Yes17c2,571$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b07…6a8abacked Yes8c2,532$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x309b…8f73backed Yes8c2,508$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d33…088abacked Yes7c2,481$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x331c…31bebacked Yes8c2,480$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…58dcbacked Yes9c2,438$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10eb…848bbacked Yes8c2,336$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.71110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1237…0bc5backed Yes7c2,325$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd768…f352backed Yes6c2,298$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd14…0bb1backed Yes9c2,232$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bb…594dbacked Yes7c2,193$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd558…0eacbacked Yes9c2,187$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb7…15a9backed Yes7c2,157$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf875…cb21backed Yes8c2,156$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528f…b5f5backed Yes9c2,130$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c2,123$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.556883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes3c2,119$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.79130%0 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c2,113$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.584440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dab…7227backed Yes8c2,110$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x654d…39edbacked Yes5c2,079$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x328e…08b9backed Yes8c2,075$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…8b3fbacked Yes8c2,063$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb2…f0cbbacked Yes7c1,986$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa238…1f31backed Yes9c1,933$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9695…30f3backed Yes8c1,930$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6e7…af86backed Yes3c1,922$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aff…3ebdbacked Yes8c1,921$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,920$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.242344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23be…f369backed Yes8c1,915$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe178…f6debacked Yes9c1,892$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,863$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.462543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…bfd4backed Yes9c1,858$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ca…6926backed Yes9c1,830$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c5d…6e92backed Yes8c1,806$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd909…f7ecbacked Yes7c1,741$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.12130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadd4…0d4abacked Yes9c1,728$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4cd…258ebacked Yes7c1,718$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf0…457abacked Yes9c1,686$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc07…d2f4backed Yes10c1,686$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954a…b92abacked Yes9c1,670$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9027…287abacked Yes19c1,628$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb205…d31ebacked Yes7c1,587$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c1,576$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.961691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3b…2509backed Yes9c1,564$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…94b7backed Yes7c1,549$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba4b…71b2backed Yes7c1,523$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ec…4cd4backed Yes7c1,523$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6539…c379backed Yes3c1,520$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc6…3442backed Yes8c1,519$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9706…1d75backed Yes7c1,518$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8051…cbcebacked Yes9c1,510$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0342…3e9dbacked Yes7c1,463$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc6…ffc7backed Yes8c1,459$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0c4…0addbacked Yes7c1,415$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ba6…0169backed Yes7c1,411$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a40…1393backed Yes7c1,374$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4401…7ae2backed Yes9c1,367$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d9b…9248backed Yes5c1,339$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5490%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33fd…c3a0backed Yes6c1,318$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad2…0704backed Yes7c1,318$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d9…8665backed Yes10c1,307$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd7…b803backed Yes7c1,306$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7a…53b9backed Yes7c1,290$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb76…0ef4backed Yes7c1,284$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7db9…d025backed Yes7c1,269$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff5…ce12backed Yes8c1,268$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.