TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$665,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$580,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $665,020 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c30,650$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7d…2137backed Yes3c8,895$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd502…c111backed Yes4c8,634$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c8,594$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.081344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes3c8,129$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.628821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c5…f14ebacked Yes4c8,126$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d8…3c22backed Yes3c8,028$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcaa…5c0dbacked Yes3c7,774$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e9…3cb1backed Yes12c6,046$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06be…8615backed Yes3c5,857$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3770%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes3c5,443$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.695117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes4c4,425$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.423826.3%10 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c4,300$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.84440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…26bfbacked Yes5c4,170$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20470%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd026…16b3backed Yes3c4,001$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed Yes3c3,795$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.673234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0863…fc3bbacked Yes6c3,687$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d3…e1bfbacked Yes8c3,240$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…01f1backed Yes10c3,231$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a81…5843backed Yes9c3,103$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfd…17e1backed Yes3c3,051$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba18…bb1cbacked Yes9c2,988$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,937$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.751,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ef4…2726backed Yes7c2,910$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd4…0d4abacked Yes8c2,850$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d33…088abacked Yes6c2,822$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x109f…f434backed Yes8c2,790$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39b…3318backed Yes5c2,692$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.770%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf068…dc96backed Yes10c2,689$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d1…6178backed Yes9c2,669$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55e…853bbacked Yes10c2,467$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes3c2,456$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.184511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe508…a87bbacked Yes8c2,419$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes5c2,415$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10f4…e540backed Yes9c2,410$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8517…15f6backed Yes7c2,345$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf325…06adbacked Yes9c2,293$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd909…f7ecbacked Yes5c2,228$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.48130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b1…0692backed Yes10c2,197$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd165…7461backed Yes8c2,196$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes4c2,164$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.293925.6%10 W · 29 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x967e…2539backed Yes9c2,142$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ed…d236backed Yes7c2,090$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e7…af86backed Yes5c2,047$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a24…65c9backed Yes10c1,963$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a2…1c9bbacked Yes5c1,947$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c2…55c6backed Yes4c1,899$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes3c1,880$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.57130%0 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4903…0242backed Yes9c1,846$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec25…cd6bbacked Yes7c1,834$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6251…95d7backed Yes9c1,824$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2c…0efcbacked Yes8c1,799$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f42…05e7backed Yes7c1,797$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b07…6a8abacked Yes9c1,770$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.12110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa00…acb0backed Yes10c1,769$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe178…f6debacked Yes8c1,753$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb4…751cbacked Yes7c1,751$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c2…31eebacked Yes9c1,720$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d7…a0bcbacked Yes3c1,697$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a1…3379backed Yes10c1,678$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf065…4e37backed Yes9c1,653$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff9…0c14backed Yes9c1,651$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f17…52d0backed Yes7c1,632$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e99…0885backed Yes8c1,630$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6678…52cabacked Yes10c1,623$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1865…34f0backed Yes10c1,593$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6539…c379backed Yes5c1,582$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc934…f437backed Yes10c1,566$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b3…4625backed Yes5c1,544$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c22…3a2dbacked Yes10c1,539$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb868…a09ebacked Yes9c1,507$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c8…cad4backed Yes7c1,503$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66fa…cdd4backed Yes8c1,501$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e67…6758backed Yes7c1,491$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4c…c7a5backed Yes8c1,491$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c71…1a5bbacked Yes10c1,486$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d6…572bbacked Yes9c1,470$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x807b…3a39backed Yes10c1,455$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba0…09febacked Yes7c1,449$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331c…31bebacked Yes7c1,442$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1048…208abacked Yes9c1,432$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47d…ed37backed Yes10c1,425$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20ed…ceedbacked Yes7c1,425$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacac…ddc6backed Yes8c1,419$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d0…6d0bbacked Yes7c1,418$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x328e…08b9backed Yes7c1,414$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736b…8739backed Yes7c1,413$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d30…e7a2backed Yes9c1,411$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5c…4b4cbacked Yes9c1,380$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e54…178dbacked Yes7c1,329$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9107…092fbacked Yes9c1,303$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd7…b803backed Yes7c1,300$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe28f…542ebacked Yes9c1,288$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97a8…9445backed Yes8c1,263$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…1d17backed Yes8c1,262$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,254$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.662344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238c…0f7abacked Yes10c1,253$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba92…ed96backed Yes5c1,253$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c1,251$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.842543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a17…b1a9backed Yes7c1,231$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.