TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$239,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c26,900$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed Yes9c18,177$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.953234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fd…fe19backed Yes6c7,621$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.292025%5 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes8c7,143$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5507027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes3c6,945$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c5…f14ebacked Yes6c6,235$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9160…6152backed Yes32c5,070$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes9c4,888$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.6714240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes1c4,629$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5d8…3c22backed Yes7c4,542$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfd…17e1backed Yes5c4,447$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes7c3,475$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.447828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c3,460$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.211676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes6c3,400$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee13…2269backed Yes2c3,297$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7f…2425backed Yes12c3,175$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.751816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21025337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85e9…3cb1backed Yes24c2,982$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes8c2,700$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd502…c111backed Yes8c2,675$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c2,568$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.911344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c2…f56dbacked Yes6c2,371$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000f…dd5fbacked Yes6c2,294$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe74…0810backed Yes6c2,284$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd909…f7ecbacked Yes11c2,200$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.39130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f5…17fcbacked Yes10c1,968$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6539…c379backed Yes8c1,879$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xede8…59dcbacked Yes6c1,873$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes8c1,744$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.915117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6341…bca9backed Yes6c1,709$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6e7…af86backed Yes9c1,659$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf66…60ecbacked Yes6c1,598$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c4a…99efbacked Yes6c1,548$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes11c1,500$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.01728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed Yes4c1,464$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes10c1,129$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3410151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c1,034$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.532543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b3…4625backed Yes10c1,017$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608321.7%18 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c1…ac22backed Yes8c975.13$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c954.44$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.752344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39b…3318backed Yes10c948.7$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0370%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes3c940.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.963718.9%7 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Yes8c861.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.893534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d3d…e96abacked Yes4c727.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes4c725.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.48821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10eb…848bbacked Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes7c709.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.328430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes9c709.42$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.04614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…02febacked Yes8c703.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes3c675.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.76130%0 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c603.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.961357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes4c590.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4310261.8%63 W · 39 L+13.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7154…6efcbacked Yes9c531.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.752433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-50.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cd2…c15bbacked Yes5c502.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2d…9375backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Yes9c488.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.943030%9 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Yes8c485.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.872128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No74c480$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.616746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No39c473.24$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.6711850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x9169…e2dabacked Yes11c448.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f0…688dbacked Yes12c415.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.421942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81d9…76e6backed Yes10c410$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4160%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes10c367$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x820c…7e43backed Yes10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes6c336.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.01555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe85a…eb12backed Yes7c335.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d1…7a94backed Yes9c328.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab99…2c8bbacked Yes8c321.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-34.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Yes10c315.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-87.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc76…6a4fbacked Yes8c313.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44da…6960backed Yes10c312.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa94d…f048backed Yes8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes7c310.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.723737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes4c310$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…638abacked Yes5c294.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a38…2224backed Yes10c291$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…bf30backed Yes5c282.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x365a…ee86backed Yes4c267.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f7…0e8cbacked Yes9c258.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.381315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-71.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a4…15eabacked Yes10c252.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcecd…c518backed Yes11c240.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.452835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No46c235.79$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.88354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1e98…6fc1backed Yes11c217.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25180%0 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes13c214.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9322029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2db2…4ca2backed Yes10c180$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-74.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb333…e295backed Yes9c178.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Yes9c154.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes8c149$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2611344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd19e…754ebacked Yes7c142.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189c…ca58backed Yes9c133.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d9b…9248backed Yes12c126.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cf5…c655backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401a…9e00backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes9c109.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.238716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105022%11 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc432…a0b2backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe24…10fbbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+44.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x497d…944cbacked Yes12c90.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.833423.5%8 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.