World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb8dc58fca874c914764b864cfbe1e07af209b625489e4158195933d8ee170d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 36c | 705.78$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.52 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 240.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 70c | 235.3$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 80c | 208.65$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…676fbacked Yes | 50c | 202$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 146.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 32c | 132.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 132$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 116.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 82.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 52c | 70.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked No | 64c | 42.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 48c | 41.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 39.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 31.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed Yes | 69c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 25.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…e066backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.