Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Finland vs Lithuania
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f0cd4e5273cf6083f0084f6b04de0ce2defa7c57382a48a13cef3e338770bf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lithuaniaof Finland, Lithuania
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Finland | 42c | 5,366$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Lithuania | 56c | 2,545$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.06 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Lithuania | 57c | 2,330$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.9 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Finland | 9c | 1,160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Lithuania | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Finland | 44c | 913.3$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Finland | 46c | 739.91$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Finland | 43c | 699.39$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.74 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Lithuania | 57c | 696.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Lithuania | 58c | 691.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.23 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Finland | 44c | 612.62$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Lithuania | 56c | 599.96$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.98 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Finland | 43c | 570.62$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Lithuania | 57c | 505.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Lithuania | 60c | 501.67$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Lithuania | 57c | 499.96$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.98 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Lithuania | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…20b6backed Finland | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Finland | 42c | 343.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…af3bbacked Finland | 51c | 320$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Lithuania | 55c | 289.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Finland | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Lithuania | 58c | 219.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Finland | 44c | 215.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…7a6bbacked Lithuania | 58c | 189.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Lithuania | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Finland | 42c | 152.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Lithuania | 57c | 139.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Finland | 44c | 121.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Lithuania | 56c | 116.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Finland | 41c | 109.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…8c7abacked Lithuania | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Finland | 44c | 74.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Finland | 42c | 71.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lithuania | 56c | 68.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…9bffbacked Finland | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Lithuania | 80c | 58.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Finland | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…212fbacked Lithuania | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed Finland | 43c | 48.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Finland | 47c | 45.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…b96dbacked Finland | 49c | 41.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…1eb6backed Lithuania | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b6f5backed Lithuania | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Lithuania | 58c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa617…d842backed Lithuania | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…8be1backed Lithuania | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Lithuania | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566f…8f86backed Lithuania | 58c | 18.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.