TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,882 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfaa…2814backed No53c7,653$4,024 inWon+$3,629.69850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes47c3,133$1,472 inLost-$1,472.31,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes47c2,600$1,234 inLost-$1,23449650.2%249 W · 247 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes48c961.44$461 inLost-$461.4916846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes48c691.81$333 inLost-$332.728,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes50c415.14$209 inLost-$208.622,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No50c311.84$156 inWon+$155.9225249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Yes52c192.31$100 inLost-$10053448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed No48c192.07$92 inWon+$99.8823351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes34c142.04$48 inLost-$47.945,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked No52c130$68 inWon+$62.468652.9%363 W · 323 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No49c120$59 inWon+$61.21,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes49c115.88$56 inLost-$56.231,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc78d…0bbdbacked Yes48c113.22$54 inLost-$54.352941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes51c75$38 inLost-$38.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed No69c60$42 inWon+$18.530454.3%165 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Yes26c59$15 inLost-$15.0642241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Yes48c50$24 inLost-$2429242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…d0a8backed No45c50$23 inWon+$27.43063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes47c47.17$22 inLost-$22.1788046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74c…2413backed No53c47.17$25 inWon+$22.179455.3%52 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Yes33c43.36$14 inLost-$14.3190446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f12…effbbacked No70c40$28 inWon+$127343.8%32 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes48c30$14 inLost-$14.41,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.