MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6baf0b01eb8455e6a3c2ab95e213893975b12af2d11c8810c86cdd62b11f076c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 1,817$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.18 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 1,585$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.23 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,237$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,208$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.03 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,081$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.84 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,075$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.77 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 859$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.42 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 848.18$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.27 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 843.63$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.34 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 476.53$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.31 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 5c | 468$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 420$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 73c | 348.18$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…47f6backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 218$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 200.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 72.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 59.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…da6abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 40.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 33.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 32.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 27.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…c61ebacked San Diego Padres | 75c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.