MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd274af68d748300221ec75c130693d53bc595875e25be8f6ba23446aa5734c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 2,179$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,044$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.13 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 910.07$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.07 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 791.26$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.3 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 44c | 759.99$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 56c | 482$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.92 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 61c | 403.39$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 288.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 208$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 166.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 115.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 37c | 106.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 70c | 50.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 44c | 34.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 42c | 32.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 56c | 29.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…26bcbacked Over | 61c | 27.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 46c | 22.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 48c | 22.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.