MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9727e8de0181083df7d39d8e0cb86e5cb57269a96acddb4f5aa5bbec906525d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 10,491$5,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,028.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 3,806$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.11 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 48c | 3,124$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.32 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 52c | 1,579$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.54 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,132$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 986.66$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 800.81$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.37 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 766.09$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.72 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 53c | 749.99$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.49 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 52c | 460.03$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.81 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 423.93$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 382$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 67c | 312.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 236.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 193.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…6b56backed Under | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…391fbacked Under | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 52c | 188.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 47c | 178.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 74c | 133.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 54c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 126.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…17e8backed Over | 48c | 99.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 20c | 79.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 50c | 66.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 80c | 62.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 56.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 54c | 54.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 79c | 52.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…8ecebacked Over | 47c | 33.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 48c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Under | 54c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 54c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 56c | 19.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.