Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f4b6ca76974a6c8f8996b63567241405d51ca19863c5c324fbe5e946145d464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 727.5$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 12c | 542$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 18c | 452.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 6c | 274.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 248.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 68c | 227.59$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 7c | 227.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 24c | 207.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 174.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 174.66$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7937…e074backed No | 59c | 164.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 164.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 143.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 16c | 140.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 21c | 140.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 18c | 136.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 134.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 22c | 133.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 18c | 121.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 62c | 111.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 108.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 105.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…af95backed Yes | 33c | 98.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 11c | 91.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 75c | 90.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 58c | 85.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 82.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 66c | 76.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 74.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 70.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 20c | 66.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 76c | 65.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 76c | 60.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 74c | 53.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 49.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 49.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 25c | 44.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 38.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 32.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 38c | 27.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…3235backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…463fbacked No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.