Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc939814136b89674a11230599c7b294c9b116105c42adb4cab475817a5c56b19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 40c | 555.15$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.61 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 536.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 69c | 299.13$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 264.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 211.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 203.44$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 15c | 194.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 151$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 149.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 13c | 147$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 58c | 142.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 135.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 39c | 133.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 63c | 130.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…eca5backed Yes | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 47c | 127.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 60c | 125.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 792 | 40.9%324 W · 468 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 15c | 123$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 121.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 27c | 117.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…52d9backed Yes | 40c | 109.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 39c | 109.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…af95backed Yes | 39c | 99.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 39c | 97.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 96.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,144 | 24.7%283 W · 861 L | +26.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 29c | 95.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 94.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 14c | 93.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 41c | 84.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 78.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 77.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 74.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 47c | 70.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 521 | 43.6%227 W · 294 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 248 | 31.9%79 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 66.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 75c | 65.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 39c | 61.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 77c | 61.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 39c | 59.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 59.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 58.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 70c | 58.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 57.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 23c | 57.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 72c | 57.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 55.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…996abacked No | 38c | 51.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 51c | 41.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 199 | 27.1%54 W · 145 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 61c | 40.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 40.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes | 40c | 40.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…da0abacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 546 | 27.1%148 W · 398 L | -64.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 42.6%113 W · 152 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 32.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 31.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 48c | 30.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 418 | 29.9%125 W · 293 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 403 | 45.9%185 W · 218 L | +29.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 58c | 27.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 62c | 27.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 22.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 22.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,186 | 50.8%603 W · 583 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked No | 70c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 69c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 58c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 60c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 453 | 46.4%210 W · 243 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 70c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 67c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.