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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6868…5198backed Yes40c555.15$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.611,44027.8%400 W · 1,040 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes12c536.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.016,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No69c299.13$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6122446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes5c264.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.212,21323.7%525 W · 1,688 L+86.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c211.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c203.44$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.81,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4266…ffacbacked Yes60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes15c194.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6741331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No61c151$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9463757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes33c149.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.977,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes13c147$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5418224.2%44 W · 138 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes58c142.68$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6514119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c135.26$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.552,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No39c133.73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0322550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No63c130.24$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.416641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad80…eca5backed Yes62c129.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-56.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes47c127.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.799239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No60c125.75$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7979240.9%324 W · 468 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes15c123$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.982,21155.9%1,236 W · 975 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No61c121.97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.574,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes27c117.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.112,25256.6%1,275 W · 977 L+64.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7d…52d9backed Yes40c109.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes39c109.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.719145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4078151.9%405 W · 376 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe072…af95backed Yes39c99.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.369,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes39c97.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0315246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes15c96.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.451,14424.7%283 W · 861 L+26.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes29c95.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.422,27359.3%1,347 W · 926 L+118.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c94.72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5312,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes14c93.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,18057%1,243 W · 937 L+73.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes41c84.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.732,22857%1,269 W · 959 L+69.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c78.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.373,41131.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L-37.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No60c78$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.254234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No68c77.6$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0410,84837.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L+432.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes28c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.751,30132.9%428 W · 873 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes23c74.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.594,01435.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No47c70.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4352143.6%227 W · 294 L+30.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes16c69.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.224831.9%79 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No61c66.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.021,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7d…63debacked No75c65.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.964860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes52c63.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3347935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed Yes39c61.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.055343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No77c61.43$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3324569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes39c59.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2110147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c59.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.266,11149.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L-116.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No48c58.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.416847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No70c58.28$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes27c57.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2712849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9848…f408backed Yes23c57.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.983132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked No72c57.1$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.797855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.865,79560%3,479 W · 2,316 L-110.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes39c55.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.542,23658.1%1,300 W · 936 L+83.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c53.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba83…996abacked No38c51.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes47c51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9735137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1345253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7527756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes51c41.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2119927.1%54 W · 145 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed No61c40.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.047263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No49c40.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4917747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes40c40.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a9…da0abacked Yes64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.254627.1%148 W · 398 L-64.8wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-32.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026542.6%113 W · 152 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x273f…ef14backed No60c33.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.074650%23 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c32.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.196,85753.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L+417.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes47c31.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.94,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes38c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.783647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed No48c30.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6141829.9%125 W · 293 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x165f…d7c0backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes53c28.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540345.9%185 W · 218 L+29.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No58c27.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.633350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No62c27.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2241051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c22.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.525,20149.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L-161.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c22.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.091,18650.8%603 W · 583 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98c…a75ebacked No70c21.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.474738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No55c21.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed No69c20.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.483444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No69c20.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.482,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No61c20.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.141,90855.6%1,060 W · 848 L+6.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No58c20.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e06…9754backed No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2713630.1%41 W · 95 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No60c18.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5245346.4%210 W · 243 L-20.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x606d…89e6backed No70c18.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65669.6%39 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84,61658.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L-114.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cc…d569backed No64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7611173%81 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No67c15.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.