Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ed08854d4dfd0eeb1ee6fa0f25911a68023872b6c3de3bc59d02073f570338b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,261$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 621.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 533.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 78c | 417.91$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…af95backed Yes | 16c | 292.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 291.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 38c | 258.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 253.8$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 13c | 239.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 205.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 186.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 178.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 26c | 176.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 45c | 156.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 147.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 127.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 116.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 111.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 110.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 109$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 24c | 97.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 31c | 95.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 92.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 63c | 89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 65c | 84.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 79.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 74.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 74.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 23c | 74.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 70.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 17c | 64.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 63.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 18c | 60.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 56.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 24c | 51.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 23c | 50.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 66c | 49.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 68c | 48.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 50c | 44.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 37c | 42.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 41.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 40.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 28c | 38.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 31c | 36.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 61c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533a…89aabacked Yes | 54c | 25.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 22.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 77c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…c4cfbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.