Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x595b34433a28733531d36f39d3e17fd30d849363ec6b4d30361906eae49430f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 527.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 515.22$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 463.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 69c | 410.87$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 10c | 278.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 12c | 270.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 13c | 263.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 251.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 28c | 209.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 191.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 191.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 18c | 169.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 164.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 15c | 163.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.43 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 152.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 146.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 145.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 139.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 9c | 137.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 12c | 137$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 134.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 132.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 121.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 120.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 13c | 117.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 19c | 113.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 19c | 111.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 18c | 105.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 10c | 103.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 99.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 98.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 14c | 95.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 23c | 92.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 20c | 89.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 30c | 83.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 18c | 83.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 14c | 80.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 49c | 78.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 17c | 68.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 23c | 64.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 36c | 61.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 19c | 57.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 24c | 53.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 52.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 30c | 51.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 80c | 48.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 46.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed No | 55c | 45.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 49c | 44.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 43.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked No | 77c | 41.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 33.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 79c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 28.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 72c | 19.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 62c | 16.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…5399backed Yes | 80c | 12.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.