NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f651c8c9cdebbeeac07f2fb6132073f8eaf15836296e7de7e88a83f4f4e6a94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,932 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 1,360$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.12 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 1,267$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.49 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 58c | 1,061$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.66 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 40c | 679.07$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.63 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 60c | 485$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 60c | 370$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 57c | 302.24$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 69c | 285$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 32c | 279.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 41c | 264.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 217.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Under | 60c | 208$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 61c | 175.88$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 173.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 168.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb996…038cbacked Under | 60c | 168$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…629fbacked Over | 41c | 121.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Under | 59c | 114$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 58c | 106$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 58c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 41c | 60.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Under | 60c | 55.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Under | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Under | 60c | 45.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…cbc2backed Over | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Over | 40c | 39.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 60c | 34.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed Under | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Under | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ed4ebacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. BluesBlues won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Blues won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.