NHL · resolved market
Spread: Blues (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6683a25e3d326ad338546a51744f37b18837597884089d41928323bf28913beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Blues, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,533 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d3d…3165backed Blues | 28c | 2,325$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Blues | 29c | 1,683$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.76 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Blues | 29c | 1,625$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.75 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Capitals | 71c | 1,550$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.78 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Blues | 27c | 1,300$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Blues | 27c | 972.92$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.75 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Capitals | 71c | 690.14$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Blues | 31c | 639.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.64 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Capitals | 72c | 619$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.68 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals | 71c | 589.82$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.77 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Capitals | 73c | 367.04$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.94 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Capitals | 71c | 355$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.05 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals | 71c | 348.83$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.39 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Capitals | 72c | 316.7$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 66c | 282.83$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blues | 25c | 263$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.25 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 71c | 153.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Capitals | 72c | 148$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Capitals | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Capitals | 73c | 140.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Capitals | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Blues | 26c | 114.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Capitals | 74c | 103$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Capitals | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Capitals | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blues | 28c | 95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Blues | 29c | 67.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Capitals | 73c | 67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Capitals | 72c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…e029backed Blues | 30c | 50.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Blues | 28c | 46.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Capitals | 72c | 37.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Blues | 28c | 37.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Capitals | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Capitals | 68c | 32.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Capitals | 73c | 31.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88a…1c9ebacked Capitals | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Capitals | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Capitals | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…ecebbacked Capitals | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…effdbacked Capitals | 73c | 19.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Capitals | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Blues | 66c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418c…4a41backed Capitals | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Capitals | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Capitals | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. BluesBlues won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.