NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e69dd955faf49a7e41071a1a911bef839f023fc29f0488470f819f2483b359a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Capitals, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,439 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Capitals | 31c | 2,325$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.75 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Blues | 69c | 1,971$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.1 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals | 29c | 1,416$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.55 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Blues | 71c | 1,396$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.84 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Capitals | 29c | 826.38$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.65 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Capitals | 35c | 557.1$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blues | 70c | 344.65$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Blues | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Blues | 71c | 227$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Blues | 71c | 221$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Blues | 72c | 132.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Blues | 71c | 103$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Blues | 67c | 85.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Blues | 71c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Blues | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…cdc0backed Capitals | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Blues | 63c | 67.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed Blues | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Blues | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Blues | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Capitals | 31c | 42.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Blues | 69c | 37.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Blues | 68c | 34.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Blues | 71c | 29.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked Blues | 72c | 25.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Blues | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Blues | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa018…a27abacked Blues | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…d3dcbacked Blues | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Blues | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. BluesBlues won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.