Champions League · resolved market
Inter Milan vs. River Plate: 3+ Goals Scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f6d3f91c520a46cf48aef0d8c0e03651430bcb1863efdb9402df43256c03e43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Yes | 43c | 4,058$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +81%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 55c | 2,201$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.48 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed No | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 61c | 1,396$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.35 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 44c | 1,003$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.26 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 78c | 919.55$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.18 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 618.01$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.66 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 55c | 577.86$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.55 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…c51dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Yes | 45c | 455.56$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Yes | 47c | 282.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.79 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 51c | 169.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 72c | 138.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee3…d282backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed No | 52c | 67.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…3b3dbacked No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…6255backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a22bbacked No | 53c | 32.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 57c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…29e4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.