TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,428
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,428 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox62c8,487$5,232 inWon+$3,254.8711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox63c5,379$3,389 inWon+$1,990.210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Minnesota Twins37c4,781$1,769 inLost-$1,7691,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Twins38c4,655$1,769 inLost-$1,768.982,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Minnesota Twins39c4,591$1,769 inLost-$1,7691,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins21c550.01$113 inLost-$113.3612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaecd…75b3backed Minnesota Twins40c500$200 inLost-$2004924.5%12 W · 37 L-6.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox60c500$300 inWon+$2008,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x081b…1c6abacked Chicago White Sox42c238.1$100 inWon+$138.14445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox80c73$58 inWon+$14.66,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Minnesota Twins38c63.94$24 inLost-$24.31,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Chicago White Sox63c41.6$26 inWon+$15.3972655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox63c18.92$12 inWon+$72,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.