MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x820e376b5660ada34a7b829deadaae1b00b9781d7ca9b53ce5716dfb74aff58e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over | 57c | 8,831$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 4,370$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 3,962$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Over | 1c | 3,808$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 2,635$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 2,126$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 1,926$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.71 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 1,358$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.91 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 1,117$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 1,083$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.03 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,006$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 55c | 916.46$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.05 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 45c | 855.71$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.28 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 44c | 839.99$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.39 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 751$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 57c | 719.3$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.3 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 44c | 472.87$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.81 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 457.02$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 429.51$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 71c | 410.17$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.22 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 29c | 406.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.65 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ac…b964backed Over | 56c | 320.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…0a91backed Under | 44c | 299.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 272.76$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 47c | 257.35$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 249.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 51c | 212.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 35c | 210$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 44c | 200.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 172.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 65c | 166.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 44c | 135.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 117.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 113.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 68.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 55.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 52c | 48.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 33c | 48.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…dbf9backed Over | 46c | 43.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 30c | 37.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Under | 45c | 33.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 65c | 27.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 55c | 25.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Over | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 52c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 77c | 15.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.