MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9ff1f64fea0a7e433e1ca3c2aef8580340fa0067b62af564b728ac551908635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 11,905$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 7,297$4,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 4,831$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 1,780$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.79 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 1,499$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.11 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 1,226$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.92 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 734$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 654.67$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 528.59$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.72 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 503.35$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.17 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 386.31$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 365.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 340$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 336.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.17 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 265.55$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 255$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 222.87$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 111.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 28c | 59.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 37.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 36.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 33.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 30.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.