MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed73c36ba8386ec3066ad2c5545ac244eed239ab88bb20b1711ea2612781424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf438…9559backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 30,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 20,780$14,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,645.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 11,452$7,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,664.76 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 8,689$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,787.12 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 2,427$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.4 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 2,000$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 1,354$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.74 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 1,299$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.69 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 865.55$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.37 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 732.75$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.48 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 600.49$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 586.69$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 333.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 324.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 299$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 240.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 238.71$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 205.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 184.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 184.1$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 105.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 87.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 81.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x327a…3480backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 47.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 47.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 37.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 32.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.