MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0df7bd5e531d4aabd72d7a9475b4528ebc905ac83a5eaaf421722241832906e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 44c | 2,820$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.94 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 1,699$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 43c | 644.57$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.69 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 531.09$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 507.58$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 49c | 447$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.69 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 56c | 399.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 343.9$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 306.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 63c | 235.48$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 210.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 189.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 52c | 130.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 118.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 83.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 65.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 60.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 57.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 57c | 54.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 46.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 44c | 43.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 52c | 42.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 57c | 36.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Over | 41c | 32.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 44c | 23.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 56c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Over | 63c | 19.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.