NBA · resolved market
Royce O'Neale: Assists O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb93b94d24ebe5010bc5e51971320e83c06a12f1318f7a0aeef5fac0ca00539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,447 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa258…200dbacked Yes | 36c | 701.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 64c | 562.07$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.35 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 59c | 368.25$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 44.4%83 W · 104 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86af…c6e0backed Yes | 33c | 145.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 68c | 84.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…098ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf153…0504backed Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Royce O'Neale: Assists O/U 2.5this page
- Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Suns won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Suns vs. SpursSpurs won
- Suns vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Under won
- Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.