Fifa International · resolved market
Will Australia win on 2025-09-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ff55f268b38682a58a4670e3499e43d308a34c7a762335ff0faf1b723767888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 48c | 21,502$10,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,202.11 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 53c | 18,243$9,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,611.94 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed No | 63c | 3,384$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,136.04 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 59c | 3,016$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked No | 56c | 2,428$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.64 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 42c | 2,008$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 56c | 1,763$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.05 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 44c | 1,227$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.46 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 46c | 1,224$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.92 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 52c | 1,192$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.96 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 55c | 1,173$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.03 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…2f1fbacked Yes | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 52c | 850$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.03 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 52c | 792.53$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…62d5backed Yes | 45c | 765.52$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 57c | 716.37$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 42c | 709.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.53 | 131 | 59.5%78 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 52c | 700$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.63 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 57c | 599.99$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.99 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 58c | 579.33$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.37 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 57c | 563.34$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.78 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 47c | 554.12$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.45 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Yes | 43c | 510.85$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…8d2cbacked Yes | 48c | 502.23$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e467backed Yes | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked No | 54c | 399.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 57c | 374.88$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.03 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 58c | 343.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.29 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 42c | 289.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 41c | 280.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 41c | 221.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.58 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 46c | 218.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 46c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed No | 73c | 131.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 42c | 119.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…ee5cbacked Yes | 48c | 110.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 53c | 108.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5cb5backed Yes | 43c | 95.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…28ebbacked Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…307bbacked Yes | 45c | 85.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b3…0719backed Yes | 45c | 63.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…6bcfbacked No | 55c | 57.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…d4a4backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed No | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b9…a48bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…6fcdbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4db…0a02backed Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Yes | 46c | 31.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f6…0c04backed Yes | 72c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia win on 2025-09-09?this page
- Will New Zealand vs. Australia end in a draw?No won
- Will New Zealand win on 2025-09-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.