MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ffc6dc16622fffcc8e84c07d7dc34a386896f207c7c03361cd2562756b3b20b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Baltimore Orioles, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 6,889$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 71c | 3,289$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 57c | 2,407$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 59c | 924.99$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 796.33$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 77c | 589.26$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Athletics | 61c | 529.09$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.34 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 508.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 66c | 505.12$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.74 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 319.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 66c | 298.5$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletics | 61c | 288.44$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 275.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Athletics | 55c | 195.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Athletics | 55c | 174.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics | 61c | 164.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 138.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 61c | 119.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics | 61c | 115.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Athletics | 62c | 105.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Athletics | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 85.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 61c | 84.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Athletics | 61c | 77.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Athletics | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 70.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 70.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 69.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 63.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Athletics | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Athletics | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 49.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Athletics | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Athletics | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…93c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 34.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…2d10backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 27.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Athletics | 65c | 21.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 61c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Athletics | 54c | 18.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Athletics | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.