MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe77148c74040ea2dd6304642388b54a326cfa9eade5fc9d7d08c3fdbcc66c185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 36c | 15,000$5,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.37 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 12,538$6,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,017.79 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 5,940$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 4,481$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 56c | 4,356$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.98 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 4,236$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Over | 48c | 4,120$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.92 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 3,198$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 2,672$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 54c | 1,974$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.87 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 1,965$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.59 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 1,753$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.54 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 48c | 1,177$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.09 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 50c | 968$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 925.42$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 762$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 661$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.67 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 608.33$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 400$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 391.08$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 48c | 262.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…9d91backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 43.1%88 W · 116 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Under | 53c | 187.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 52c | 168.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 51c | 145$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 64c | 133.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Over | 32c | 128.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 119.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 48c | 119.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 117.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…429cbacked Under | 53c | 98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 64c | 90.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 50c | 86.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 79.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 51c | 78.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 76.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 42c | 64.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 17c | 60.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 57.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 38c | 50.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 41c | 48.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Over | 33c | 47.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 44.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 39.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 48c | 37.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Under | 53c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 69c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 67c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesAthletics won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.