Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5008f23e0f43045be08cf2707f25363e2fee36c2baaf8cd17bf454399fe54020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0390…3871backed Pipsqueak+4 | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…fdd9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 6,641$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 4,014$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 2,526$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.09 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 1,830$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.84 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 1,590$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 1,180$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Pipsqueak+4 | 10c | 983.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 935$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 921.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 10c | 828.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…7d14backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 796$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 5c | 701.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 600.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…7667backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 538$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…7faabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 488$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9b…40f4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 434.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 413.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…0312backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 405.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9da3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 384$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…9f77backed Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 350.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 284.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pipsqueak+4 | 9c | 273.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 6c | 260$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 254$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 8c | 237.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 222.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 202.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ | 71c | 178.21$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…9b76backed Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 166$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779f…31ccbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…6a22backed Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.