Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdffef10eb5169e1723f3872bce238de63b7db275ee741b73e4e83b4014c182a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 12,690$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.28 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed MOUZ | 28c | 10,492$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,578.33 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 3,591$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.23 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 2,142$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.4 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 4c | 2,121$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 2,032$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 1,853$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.52 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 1,357$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.02 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 16c | 1,241$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.86 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 1,151$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.98 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed MOUZ | 79c | 1,008$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.17 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed MOUZ | 36c | 819.55$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.91 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 9c | 800$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 723.94$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.42 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed MOUZ | 79c | 723.33$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 54c | 682.37$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…eda5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 606.21$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed MOUZ | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ | 79c | 600$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 57c | 584.81$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.06 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 66c | 542$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.9 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed MOUZ | 80c | 499.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked MOUZ | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked MOUZ | 45c | 480.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.05 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 455.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 414$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 275.23$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ | 40c | 252$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked MOUZ | 80c | 250.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 225.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 194.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 573 | 55.5%318 W · 255 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 174.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked MOUZ | 70c | 168.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f42…5b96backed Pipsqueak+4 | 68c | 152.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 150.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ | 80c | 150.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 146.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed MOUZ | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed MOUZ | 19c | 123.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed MOUZ | 18c | 113.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6477…1efcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 109.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…09f1backed MOUZ | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 23c | 69.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked MOUZ | 40c | 57.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed MOUZ | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c04…3fdbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…b5afbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb73b…7155backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Pipsqueak+4 | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0a2dbacked MOUZ | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed MOUZ | 80c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed MOUZ | 60c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 17.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.