Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb602411046ae4913139f1211603aaaef8d10098d7d4f355255d6b00a110c9b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 8,357$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 78c | 8,000$6,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.69 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 7,903$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.86 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 6,023$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.19 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 2,032$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 21c | 1,619$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 1,330$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.43 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked MOUZ | 74c | 1,067$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.33 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked MOUZ | 79c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ | 79c | 700.41$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 647.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed MOUZ | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 541.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked MOUZ | 75c | 499.56$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.89 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed MOUZ | 78c | 471.89$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 446.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 412.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked MOUZ | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 313.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked MOUZ | 77c | 230.38$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed MOUZ | 79c | 189.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…953abacked MOUZ | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed MOUZ | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 112.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 66.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…7796backed Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed Pipsqueak+4 | 23c | 49.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 42.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked MOUZ | 74c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…eda5backed MOUZ | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.