Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500d5de1d3b441408bae38a4f797e8b106630eb69452a5a12e2f14f488393329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 914.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 289.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 31c | 125.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 71c | 115.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 76c | 101.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 46c | 89.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 35c | 85.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 84.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 15c | 84.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 80.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 64c | 77.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 76.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 68.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 44c | 67.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 32c | 67.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 80c | 62.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 61.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 54.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 32c | 44.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 43.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…b928backed Yes | 76c | 40.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 40.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 79c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 38c | 29.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 28.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…a8dfbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 20.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.