La Liga · resolved market
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x501a2e767716645ca3a340da89ee66f9fbd00e3dd6c58fba33038a97af803482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3f8…4682backed Over | 25c | 4,007$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 1,411$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.19 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 17c | 1,400$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.11 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 1,344$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.17 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 626.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.64 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 619.76$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 398$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 26c | 361.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 74c | 337$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 16c | 293.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Under | 74c | 240.54$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 17c | 235.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 23c | 220.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 76c | 202$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Over | 41c | 195.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…f8c6backed Under | 78c | 188.06$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 24c | 181.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 14c | 168.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 229 | 39.3%90 W · 139 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 74c | 144.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 25c | 138.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 224 | 48.2%108 W · 116 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 23c | 121.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 26c | 120.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 95.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 72c | 94.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 26c | 79.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…f950backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 63c | 45.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 27c | 38.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…5cfdbacked Under | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.