Premier League · resolved market
Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x506d3e1ad74059c0dd71c3a12735b4e3983644726f1fae41f1cca40d198e70fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Over | 24c | 200,000$48,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,999.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 76c | 117,284$89,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,148.25 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 42,809$32,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,942.29 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 76c | 30,000$22,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 211 | 54.5%115 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 4,872$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.64 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 76c | 2,301$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.24 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 76c | 1,821$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.01 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Over | 6c | 826.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Under | 77c | 696$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 21c | 248.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…08adbacked Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 23c | 108.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 76c | 85.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…af0bbacked Over | 23c | 52.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8de…21f7backed Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Nottingham Forest (-1.5)Wolves won
- Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 1.5Under won
- Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.