Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508b3ef86aaba98487a26c8ab9e3a9e40a31361d944040cc40090fc977eb47de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,370$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 1,156$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 205.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 77c | 200.72$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 64c | 195.91$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 66c | 146.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 146$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 132.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 49c | 102.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 95.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 95.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 89.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 58c | 84.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 75.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 68.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 65.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 65.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 62.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 49c | 60.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 58.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 56.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 37c | 54.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 48c | 53.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 63c | 51.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 50.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 47c | 50.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 57c | 47.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 47c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 67c | 41.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 39.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 34.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 45c | 33.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 31.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 58c | 30.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 28.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 26.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 39c | 25.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 25.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed Yes | 55c | 25.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 41c | 24.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 24.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 54c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 55c | 20.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.