La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC vs. CD Castellón end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5098ca27cc503905907dd23941f6f24b84a18d53fc1d2fe5dfe2fcb7a83dbc4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 455.38$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.94 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…5c4dbacked Yes | 76c | 445.86$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 23c | 433.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 412.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 71c | 380.45$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 77c | 363.07$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed No | 24c | 357.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 53c | 263$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 21c | 222.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.01 | 206 | 30.6%63 W · 143 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 77c | 199.08$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 52c | 191.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 49c | 181.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 54c | 136.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 45c | 135.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 211 | 39.8%84 W · 127 L | -15.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 69c | 135.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 61c | 126.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 23c | 102.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 92 | 76.1%70 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 94 | 66%62 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 21c | 84.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 23c | 74.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked No | 76c | 73.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 75c | 70.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1e…f51cbacked No | 24c | 66.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 60.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 24c | 52.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 47c | 46.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 77c | 44.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Yes | 68c | 43.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 34.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked No | 34c | 30.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…94cabacked Yes | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC vs. CD Castellón end in a draw?this page
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.