Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50a4da9d3b92d24cfcc8a88cf9a1a77aad378a1621bd2a39b464c85eabe9905b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb443…38ebbacked Yes | 16c | 5,901$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,956.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…1efebacked No | 1c | 2,700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 1,560$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 544.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 423.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 416$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 48c | 304.37$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.27 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 302.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 18c | 281.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.78 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 269.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 45c | 252.65$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…36e6backed No | 80c | 250.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 25c | 234.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 230.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 8c | 226.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 207.17$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 18c | 182$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 22c | 180.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.96 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 179.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 161.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 161.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 160.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…cc8fbacked No | 48c | 157$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 68c | 156.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 44c | 117.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 67c | 102.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 102.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 98.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 96.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 91.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed No | 48c | 83.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 78.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8730…d68bbacked Yes | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 54c | 75.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 74.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 71.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 15c | 71.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 45c | 67.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 44c | 66.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 27c | 66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 79c | 64.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 46c | 60.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 66c | 53.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 30c | 48.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 27c | 44.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 41.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…4bc9backed Yes | 33c | 39.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 52c | 36.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…ebfbbacked Yes | 52c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 32.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3c…b1aabacked No | 55c | 27.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 65c | 23.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 66c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…aaddbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 77c | 19.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…f207backed No | 74c | 15.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.