Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56d16d390b99eb6629836b6f0a55bfd0d7df4bf593674e8cd2faaea6cc44e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 74c | 444.72$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 406$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 395$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 39c | 299.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 20c | 249.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 5c | 234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 77c | 194.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 27c | 189.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 168.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 167$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 161.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 156.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 146.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 144.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 142.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 133.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 75c | 133.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 131.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 29c | 123.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 120.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 120.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 73c | 116.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 28c | 115.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 113.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 17c | 111.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 111.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 104.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 96.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 30c | 92.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 28c | 91.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 91.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 89.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcd…44d7backed Yes | 28c | 81.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 79.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 24c | 76.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 33c | 75.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…14babacked No | 75c | 73.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…8158backed No | 77c | 73.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 69.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 72c | 69.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 66.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 65.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 74c | 60.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 24c | 58.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 20c | 57.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed Yes | 24c | 56.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 74c | 54.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 21c | 54.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 28c | 52.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 34c | 50.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 49.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 49.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 33c | 48.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 79c | 46.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…c68dbacked Yes | 28c | 45.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…f2d3backed Yes | 29c | 43.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 42.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…c706backed No | 76c | 41.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 41.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 41.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 39.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 38.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…d28fbacked No | 68c | 37.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 36.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 32c | 36.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 73c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 33.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 67c | 33.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed No | 75c | 32.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 72c | 31.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 76c | 31.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 66c | 27.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 26.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 72c | 25.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 23.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…e705backed No | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…71dabacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 68c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.