Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x170273a58cbe10f9576b1779eae25b66c0ba093bbf8a1acf95af4ea01086a196
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 894.8$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 2c | 687$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…4218backed No | 58c | 533.96$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 406$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 56c | 328.28$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 230.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 39c | 220.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 214.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 209.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 25c | 189.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 62c | 183.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 175.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked No | 59c | 168.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 59c | 163$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 143.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 140.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 41c | 123.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 121.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 78c | 120.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 46c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed Yes | 43c | 115.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 114.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 110.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 39c | 102.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed Yes | 40c | 102.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 49c | 101.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 33c | 90.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 35c | 84.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 42c | 84.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed No | 60c | 76.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 68c | 73.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 72.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 45c | 70.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 64c | 67.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 72c | 67.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 67.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 21c | 66.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 65.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 19c | 64.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 63c | 64.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 60c | 61.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 61.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 36c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 35c | 58.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 29c | 56.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 45c | 55.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 26c | 54.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 54c | 52.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 41c | 49.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 56c | 48.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 48.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…71dabacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…1ac0backed No | 62c | 45.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 44.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 40c | 44.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes | 40c | 41.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 41.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 39.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 39c | 38.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…598abacked No | 58c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 36.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 43c | 36.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 41c | 34.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 72c | 31.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 44c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 64c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 60c | 29.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed No | 54c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 60c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 25.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 45c | 23.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 64c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 55c | 21.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 21.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed Yes | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…26a1backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 61c | 19.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 67c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 19.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 58c | 19.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.