Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50ac499b7e9b56e57f7326b10072acff2c5c228cb23609118991e08537c63c59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 504.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 53c | 340.05$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 56c | 255.8$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 243.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.17 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 234.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 225.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 187.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 162.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 159.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed Yes | 32c | 156.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3afc…4ae6backed Yes | 20c | 148.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaad…25c9backed Yes | 22c | 136.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 126.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 121.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 118.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 108$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 105.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 61c | 97.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 90.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 56c | 87.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 85.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 74.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 21c | 57.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 23c | 55.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 30c | 54.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 49.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked No | 78c | 47.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 45.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 41.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 30c | 40.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 38c | 39.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 38.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 27.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 69c | 25.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 75c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…513abacked No | 80c | 12.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.