Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f11039d9e91367e48172d8e9de5aba2fcf24cff01be3aa13fe84576a80a23c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,027$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.31 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 350.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 248.39$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 246$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 185.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 153$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 145.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 143.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 56c | 135.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 45c | 126.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 125.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 29c | 83.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 55c | 80.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 74.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 45c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 56.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 53.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 52.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 59c | 50.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 59c | 50.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked No | 59c | 47.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 45.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 41.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 39.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 37.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 36.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 58c | 35.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 58c | 32.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 56c | 31.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 56c | 30.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 54c | 30.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed Yes | 44c | 28.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 50c | 28.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked Yes | 43c | 26.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8851…1d7abacked Yes | 75c | 25.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed Yes | 44c | 24.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 69c | 21.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.