Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50ae3f8ac48cfcd675e1a2facf1e101c6b8ea8ad7c4e003aad00f63ab33b7f8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,165$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.07 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 75c | 532.07$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 478.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 406.46$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.49 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 373.46$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 357.06$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 34c | 317.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.69 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 24c | 277.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.75 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 242.31$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.39 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 19c | 204.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.93 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 41c | 203.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked Yes | 75c | 203.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 23c | 203$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 76c | 195.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 195$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 165.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 138.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 24c | 136.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 73c | 136.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 72c | 135$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 74c | 133.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 31c | 130.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 129.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 128.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 77c | 127.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 38c | 123.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 122.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 111$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 108.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 100.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 24c | 96.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 92.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 89.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 88.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 88.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes | 23c | 87.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 75c | 86.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 81.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 78.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 75.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 72.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 67c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 78c | 71.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 71.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…6bc7backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 68.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 20c | 68.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 63.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 68c | 62.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 50c | 60.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 59.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…5df4backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 55.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 46.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed No | 75c | 46.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 27c | 44.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 35c | 43.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 65c | 41.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 347 | 32.9%114 W · 233 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…b233backed Yes | 30c | 38.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 44c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d5…01e8backed No | 75c | 33.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 32.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed No | 66c | 30.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 55c | 29.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 58c | 26.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,004 | 70.9%712 W · 292 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 61c | 25.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab0…997cbacked No | 66c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 70c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 79c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.