Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0591d4c19404cf3a3d964cc28b7df162fbbe2c2ef33f10bfd26502691bf421f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,005$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.79 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 934.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 25c | 880.07$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.76 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 36c | 500.78$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 357.34$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 339.31$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 322.85$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 27c | 318.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 72c | 278$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 38c | 257$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 19c | 215.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 43c | 200.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 179.25$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 57c | 175.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 29c | 166.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 164$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 158.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 10c | 139.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked No | 76c | 136.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 16c | 119.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 118.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 116.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 111$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 62c | 101.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 68c | 100.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 96.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 15c | 95.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 36c | 94.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 74c | 92.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 90.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 38c | 85.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 84.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 23c | 82.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 75c | 74.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…5c65backed Yes | 29c | 74.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 74.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 78c | 73.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…6bc7backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…6d91backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 66.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 63.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…b233backed Yes | 24c | 63.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 33c | 59.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 57.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 54.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed No | 74c | 50.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 72c | 50.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 80c | 47.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 42.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 37.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed No | 72c | 36.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 32.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 58c | 32.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked No | 78c | 30.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 77c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 62c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 72c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 80c | 23.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 63c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 22.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…db1fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 66c | 19.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed No | 72c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 74c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked No | 63c | 16.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…e23abacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.