Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50ff9844df414f9665e8ed503dfcf2bbf9b11a1304d52ff98cfd466d17a5b538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 4,556$3,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 29c | 2,442$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 68c | 1,441$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.36 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 27c | 1,250$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.04 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Under | 77c | 1,100$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 35c | 1,032$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.03 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 35c | 568$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 65c | 340.3$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 33c | 303.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 289.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 29c | 286.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 31c | 209.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 69c | 166$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 164.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 71c | 122.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 71c | 103.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 69c | 91.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 57c | 88.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 85.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 31c | 84.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Over | 34c | 81.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…14f0backed Over | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 70c | 78.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 67.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 31c | 46.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Over | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 31c | 42.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…1879backed Under | 71c | 41.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 32c | 31.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 67c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 75c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278c…b446backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…b668backed Under | 75c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.